Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 6 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 22 July 2026 at 05:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 21st strongest of the 64 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 29 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tropical Storm Warning issued July 21 at 4:12PM CDT by NWS Mobile AL
An estimated 237,811 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- July 30, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- July 29, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- July 22, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 27.7000, -81.7000 |
| Nearest City | Lake Wales (25 km) |
| Population Exposed | 237.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T21:12:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Tropical Storm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e761e3bb352634ba71b12752b0eb74c5 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tropical Storm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | North Mobile Bay; South Mobile Bay; Mississippi Sound; Perdido Bay Area; Pensacola Bay Area including Santa Rosa Sound; Western Choctawhatchee Bay; Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay; Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL out 20 NM; Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM; St. Andrews Bay Waterways; Coastal waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Mexico Beach out 20 NM; Coastal Waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola out 20 NM; Waters from Okaloosa-Walton County Line to Mexico Beach from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM |
| Headline | Tropical Storm Warning issued July 21 at 4:12PM CDT by NWS Mobile AL |
| Expires | 2026-07-22T00:00:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Mobile AL |
| HasExactCoords | false |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e761e3bb352634ba71b12752b0eb74c5e7a694d9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bb6b8fdaf8333c08ba86d83baf1c27c8c1ce19c2.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During a tropical cyclone: shelter in a sturdy interior room away from windows. Stock emergency supplies including water, food, medications, and flashlights. Do not venture outdoors during the eye of the storm. After passage, beware of downed power lines, flooding, and structural damage. Follow official guidance for evacuation and shelter.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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